I want you to consider this possibility: One Nation is not on the rise. It has simply expanded into the enormous political vacuum left by the National Party (and to a lesser extent, the Liberal and Labor parties) abandoning its responsibilities.
A genuine political rise is built on organisation, credible leadership and policies capable of surviving serious scrutiny – and it usually takes a very long time of sustained growth. One Nation’s support is far more fragile than that. The more its representatives are tested, particularly on policy, the more that great balloon of hot air begins to deflate.
The more candidates they lie about – like the first year uni student that the party claims has finished his double degree and spent some time working in Japan – the more fuel they add to the raging bonfire that this is not a credible party.
And while they may ride high in the polls so long as the election is a long way away and the people are angry – and they are, rightfully, f*!king angry – as election day draws near they wane, rather than wax. The only time they win is when they are given the space to do so.
One Nation, and every other movement powered by protest and grievance, will continue inflating its importance for as long as the political space remains empty.
The political space has always been empty in outer suburbia. They are the hardest voters to talk to – they work two or three jobs, they don’t have a lot of time, nor a lot of education to understand what is being put to them. They understand facebook reels – that’s about the bandwidth they have and they won’t go seeking more information.
And Labor and Liberal parties have generally abandoned them, over and over again, just showing up at election time and sprinkling some cash to get a few cheap votes. The Hanson machine has been working these areas hard and well for some time – so there’s some solid votes for them there. That’s why Barnaby is talking about Western Sydney… I’ve always said Barnaby ain’t dumb, and he’s read the play very well.
Who is bloody dumb are the pollsters predicting seats like New England would ever vote One Nation. People around here don’t vote for parties, they vote for candidates, and they vote in the interests of their communities.
For generations, the Nationals dominated New England because they never allowed space for anyone else to get a word in. They were not merely a party whose candidates appeared at election time. They were a constant presence in their communities. They worked hard, they delivered, and they never took for granted the awesome privilege that it is to represent the New England.
When they did, like Stuart St Clair, they were promptly shown the door.
Even Tony Windsor was in many respects a National in independent clothing: socially and culturally attuned to his electorate, locally focused, espousing modern social agrarian values and prepared to challenge the political establishment and city dominance. That combination will always find support in New England.
Yet even throughout the independent reigns at state and federal level, the National Party remained visible. It maintained its networks, fought for what our communities need, and worked to persuade voters that the party belonged at the centre of our way life.
Where is that party now?
Where are the Nationals making the case that renewable-energy projects, properly planned and fairly negotiated, could provide farmers with one of the most reliable drought-proof income streams they have ever had?
Where are they challenging the blunt application of the EPBC Act or the safeguard mechanism when those policies seriously threaten productive agricultural land and regional livelihoods?
Where are they fighting for the water infrastructure our communities need, for roads to receive bloody basic maintenance, or for the right to see a doctor when you genuinely need one—not merely a face on a screen because that’s all Newcastle has decided we need?
While Barnaby galavants around the countryside with the red devil, who is doing the necessary and important work of representing our communities?
At state level, the Nationals look feckless and timid. Too many of their representatives appear to lack the intellectual curiosity and backbone – or to be more direct, brains and balls – that should be minimum requirements for candidate endorsement.
Brendan Moylan has repeatedly shown an inability to read the room and far too easily influenced by the noise. He too often appears underprepared, poorly briefed and shakier on basic facts than any community should accept from its representative—let alone from somebody expected to grapple with complex policy or the enormous challenges of the Northern Tablelands. And even if he hadn’t been a bit ‘meh’ on just about everything since getting elected, the stunning stupidity of the Nat’s bright idea to rip the REZ out from under this region, without even bothering to talk to his mayors about it, is enough for him to go the way of Stuart St Clair.
Kevin Anderson is, undoubtedly, a very good communicator. He has mastered the performance of indignation. He can sound suitably cranky on television and social media at the drop of a hat. But effective politics requires more than outrage tailored to the next news cycle. It requires seeing the whole board, anticipating consequences and understanding how today’s political manoeuvre will affect a community years from now.
They might be nice guys, but this region needs more than that. They need people capable of delivering. Deliver the long called for split in Hunter New England Health, or working with communities to leverage the REZ for all the infrastructure we’ve been denied for too long, or just get the damn roads fixed.
Some of the coastal Nationals may be stronger. Gurmesh Singh, however, has failed to bring the grace or gravitas his leadership responsibilities demand, and is generally uninspiring.
Six months out from a state election, and max 18 months from the next federal, I cannot name anyone who is genuinely impressed by the current state of the Nationals. That looks to them as our voice. That trusts them with our future.
That is not merely an electoral problem for the party. It is a serious problem for northern New South Wales. And not just because we can’t rely on the weakened Nats to make the case that New England should be its own state as it traditionally has.
New England faces enormous and urgent challenges. Our communities are being short-changed by governments in Sydney and Canberra on a daily basis. We need serious representation, institutional strength and MPs capable of understanding how water, energy, agriculture, healthcare, roads, regional development and everything else fit together.
Jamie Chaffey appears to be one of the few who understands the state of play. But he will remain a victim of the sheer geography of his electorate. No individual, however diligent, can effectively and consistently serve communities scattered across such an immense area – let alone be the single clarion voice still communicating National Party values, when his own party leadership are capitulating to the populist nonsense.
This is the vacuum One Nation has entered. Neither its presence in polling, nor the Barnaby self-interested flip, proves that northern New South Wales has suddenly embraced its policies. It proves that voters who feel abandoned will look almost anywhere for somebody willing to acknowledge their frustrations.
The danger for the Nationals is that protest votes can become habits. A party that retreats from its heartland and its long-held values should not be surprised when somebody else occupies the space they vacated.
One Nation will falter under scrutiny. But simply waiting for that inevitable collapse is not a strategy. It’s like waiting for Trump to leave office while more and more damage is done every day. And even at the end, the power vacuum will remain, and another movement of anger and grievance will fill it.
The Nationals once understood that regional representation depended on constant presence: turning up, mastering the issues, developing credible policy and fighting relentlessly for communities that metropolitan governments found convenient to overlook.
Northern New South Wales does not need louder outrage. It needs competent, determined and serious representation.
So, will the real National Party please stand up?
Its heartland desperately needs it.
End rant.
Dr RK (Kath) Crosby is the CEO of research and strategy company KORE CSR, former strategist for the Australian Democrats, and holds a PhD in political behaviour. She is also a well known migraine and health advocate, and the Publisher of New England Times and North Coast Times.
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