The final Engage Poll is predicting a very similar result for New England as in 2022, but Parkes is hard to pick with significant regional variation and a huge anti-Dutton factor causing even loyal National supporters to rethink their vote.
728 respondents took part in the poll. After cleaning and verification, there were 426 New England voters and 212 Parkes voters, with the biggest group of the others from Cowper on the coast.
The consistent support for the Labor Government to win continues, and has hardened slightly back above 50% of respondents.
The best summation of what we are seeing throughout our polls is in this comment:
“There are some major problems in this country, and only strong leadership will solve them. Neither candidate is offering that – The Coalition had an open goal this election and seem to have missed.”
45-49 year old male voter, Armidale
New England
We have enough New England responses to publish the numbers, noting a 4% Margin of Error (so plus or minus 4 for each number).
For comparison, at the 2022 election, Barnaby Joyce got 52.5% of the primary vote and 66.4% of the two party preferred against Laura Hughes 18.5% primary 33.6% 2PP. So, it looks like a swing to Labor, but not enough to bother Barnaby.
The main difference this time is the lack of 8th candidate – Independent Matt Sharpham secured 7.9% of the vote in 2022. There is still a very large desire amongst New Englanders to vote independent, but other than Ledger (who has run enough times that people have heard something about her) they have nowhere to go, so it will split across the parties. The Greens uptick is largely due to candidate choice, and Muswellbrook voters choosing the local. The TOP decimation from last time’s United Australia Party vote is also mainly candidate choice, with over 40% of voters saying they are preferencing the ‘Prince’ last, but also a wholesale rejection of the party and it’s Trump-like positioning – but a lot of those votes will go to One Nation.
So , the short version is that most votes will go to the majors and there will be less preferences floating around. but otherwise just rinse and repeat.
To be completely fair, if these numbers hold true it will be an astonishing achievement for Joyce, because the anti-Dutton factor is absolutely off the charts.
“I would like to vote for Barnaby but I don’t want to vote for Peter Dutton as Prime Minister”
50-54 year old female voter in Armidale
There is always a level of pro and anti Barnaby commentary in every poll we do, but from time to time we see a split between Barnaby and Coalition, but it’s usually ‘I don’t like the Coalition but Barnaby’s our man’ type sentiment. Only in the last two polls have we seen opposition to Dutton personally defeating support for Barnaby. The cast majority of the undecided votes at likely to break for Joyce.
If that momentum holds Barnaby may take a bigger hit than expected. Not enough for him to lose the seat, but probably enough for Laura Hughes and the New England Labor team to enjoy a well earned celebration.
Parkes
The Parkes numbers we aren’t going to publish, in large part because there are really significant geographic differences and we didn’t get a decent enough sample from the bottom end of the electorate, and if we put out a graphic it will get shared on social media without all our cautionary notes.
However, if what we are seeing holds true, we are looking at a three cornered contest and all hell may break loose.
The combination of a significant redistribution, the retirement of Mark Coulton and the National’s decision to preselect a candidate from the most north eastern corner of the electorate with no presence in the south or the largest centre of Dubbo, and the intense anti-Dutton factor as is seen in New England – but without the Barnaby loyalty factor to protect the Nationals from that swing.
There’s 10 candidates in Parkes, so no matter what happens primary votes will be low and there will be a lot of preferences to count. Support was registered for all 10.
From our – again, small sample – the Nationals Jamie Chaffey is holding up to 70% of voters from the northern end of the electorate, dropping down to 40% around Dubbo and the southern parts, and then as low as 20% around Broken Hill. It should shake out to an electorate wide primary vote somewhere in the high 30’s, which you would expect (there’s usually a 5-10% swing against the incumbent party on the retirement of a sitting member just in name recognition).
Labor’s Nathan Fell is pulling the majority of votes from Broken Hill and the western areas, and a fairly solid and consistent 20% across most of the eastern parts of the electorate, bit higher in Dubbo, so is on track for a primary vote in the mid 20’s. If he keeps campaigning as he has been, and the momentum continues, might even get into the high 20s.
Mostly due to her dogged campaigning and visibility, Sally Edwards should also get into the double digits, particularly in those areas in the Central West Orana Renewable Energy Zone where she has been active and visible for some time, possibly close to 20%.
Greens and the Indigenous Aboriginal Party are on track to get the same 5% each as they normally do, no change there.
Where things go wild is in the Parkes/Forbes area, where there is really high disaffection in voters (which also means its harder to get them to answer a poll…). Having been shafted to yet another electorate for the third election in a row thanks to AEC redistributions, voters there have no idea who their local member is, was, or could be, and don’t really care. That generally manifests as ‘we hate everyone’ so the votes go everywhere, unpredictably, and often to the fringe parties.
While the sample is small, we currently have half of our respondents (careful, not half of all voters) in Parkes and Forbes voting for Trumpets, One Nation, Shooters, Family First, or Libertarian.
Now, on a two party preferred basis ordinarily that wouldn’t matter a great deal, all those votes would come home to the Nationals in preferences and elect Chaffey. But the anti-Dutton sentiment is so strong, and the vast majority of Parkes electorate voters don’t get – let alone follow – a how to vote card that those preference votes could go anywhere.
Seriously?
Yeah ok, we are aware suggesting that the National Party might lose Parkes is a bit like saying Santa may not come this Christmas if you don’t eat all your veggies.
We have spoken to a couple of journalists and others to verify what we were seeing in the poll is what it is feeling like on the ground in the different parts of the massive electorate, and things seem to line up. The major booths in the Parkes/Forbes area recorded a 25-30% vote for the right wing minor parties in the last couple of elections – and in the 2022 election, when they were in Riverina, their sitting MP was Michael McCormack, not exactly a guy you’ve never heard of. So it is absolutely in the realm of possibility that up to half of the vote in Parkes, Forbes, West Wyalong could go to minor right parties.
The comments indicate that the anti-Dutton factor is even more intense in Parkes than New England, and those votes are scattering to the wind.
“Can’t stand Dutton! Minor parties look interesting but no hope in this electorate.”
45-49 year old female voter, Narrabri, planning to vote Labor
“I was supporting the Nationals, and Jamie would certainly be good for our region, but watching the leaders debates I’m not convinced either eg Labor or LNP is fit to lead us out of these current problems.”
60-64 year old male voter, Gunnedah, planning to vote One Nation
“I’ve changed my vote because of Peter Dutton”
60-64 year old male voter, Dubbo, planning to vote Labor
“Sick of renewables being pushed but I’d rather have a wind turbine in my back yard than have Dutton as PM”
50-54 year old female voter, Gilgandra, planning to vote Libertarian
“I had to go look up who else I could vote for because there’s no way I was voting for that <expletive> Dutton”
30-36 year old male voter, Wilcannia, planning to vote Indigenous Aboriginal Party
The other data point is the YouGov MRP projection which is indicating a 5.1% swing to Labor in Parkes – note this is a projection more than a poll and does not factor in actual candidates. This has the Coalition on 43% primary and a high One Nation vote of 14.4% – that’s not going to happen, the One Nation candidate has been largely MIA, but if we assume Edwards gets that kind vote, then the YouGov numbers aren’t much different to ours but with an additional ~5% shift from Coalition to Labor in first preferences, lower Green and slightly higher Other vote.
If that really high disaffected vote all goes to Sally Edwards before the National Party in the preference flow, Edwards could steal the seat – even from a fairly low primary herself – in what would be a massive upset.
If all of the Greens and a significant proportion of the IAPA votes go to Labor bringing Fell up to low-mid 30s, and most of the other candidates votes go to Libertarian before Nationals, bringing Edwards up to low 30’s, leaving Chaffey floundering in the 40s, we are in for a long night.
Or maybe a fortnight, waiting for the postals. Maybe a recount.
Definitely popcorn required.
Stand by…
What will actually happen we shall just have to wait and see on Saturday night.
Our current plan is to live blog the count on election night for those nerds who want to have on every booth result like we do, please join in.
We’ll have a bigger breakdown on vote influence factors and what voter
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