Is the election over?

My favourite academic article from everything I read during my election PhD studies was ‘The Election is Over’ by Paul Lazarsfeld, published in 1944.

While it was nearly a century ago and about a US Presidential rather than an Australian federal election, the message – and the electoral reality – is still the same. The election was over before it began. 

It always is this way – the vast majority of voters always decided their vote long ago – but there is always a moment in the campaign where you can change the direction of the wind if you do everything right. Which is why, 80 years after multiple sociologists declaratively found without a shadow of a doubt that the election campaign has little to no impact on the vote outcome, we still engage in the five week long drama. 

For months, the polling and focus groups have said that Australians neither know nor like either Dutton or Albanese. Neither party is actually ‘winning’ (that is, getting above 50% approval ratings) in almost every policy area you can think of. 

And certainly nothing in this election campaign has changed that. There’s is less difference between the two leaders or the two major parties than between the Powers Twinnies. 

But voters are scared by the uncertainty of the world and their confidence they can pay their bills shaken, so they are looking for safe, confidence inspiring leadership. 

I said a couple of weeks ago that this election was boring. And it is, monumentally, dumbfoundingly boring. Certainly not inspiring. 

But never in 30 years of watching and working on election campaigns have I seen the major parties suspend campaigning on 4 out of 8 days at the pointy end of the election campaign. 

Some may assume that there was some agreement to cancel campaigning on Good Friday, Easter Sunday, and Anzac Day back when the election was called. There was not. 

There was certainly no agreement to ‘dial back’ campaigning yesterday because the Pope died. 

I get it, the Pope died. I do understand how important that is to many people. But, in any normal election campaign, this close to election day, you don’t stop campaigning even if your own grandmother died. 

Peter Dutton’s dad was taken to hospital with a heart attack, and he didn’t stop then. Why stop for the Pope? 

It’s the kind of odd campaign behaviour that makes the hair on the back of many a campaign strategist’s neck stand on end. What’s going on? Why on earth do both major parties not want to campaign? 

Have they given up? 

Do they not care? 

Are they just trying to save money by cancelling a few events and a few days of advertising?

Are they both so convinced the other is doing more to damage their own campaigns that they should get out of the way and just let the other fall on their face some more? 

Is there some massive scandal or huge story some journo is sitting on that will turn the campaign on its head, so they’re just using every excuse they can to limit face time with journos? Even Monique Ryan refused to talk to a journo yesterday, who was only asking how the campaign was going… is she in on whatever it is that they’re hiding?

I woke up at 2am this morning from a nightmare about what happens next. It can’t be good, whatever is going on. And if they have both just given up, and don’t think the leadership of our nation is worth fighting for, then that can’t be good for the next three years. 

In a nation of people that feel insecure and unsettled, ‘couldn’t be bothered’ tweedledum and tweedledee is not exactly what you’re hoping for. 

Certainly the school boy animosity and attacks in last night’s debate on Channel 9 were nothing to be proud of, and does plenty to encourage people to vote independent, so if that’s all they have to offer the nation, perhaps they should shut up and get out of the way. 

Get out of the way for whom? I don’t know. I just know we deserve better. 

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