With the rail trail back in the spotlight… again, it’s time to seriously think about what is best for both Armidale city and the broader region. I also have to disclose; I have zero skin in the game. This opinion comes free of charge from an economist born and raised as a Kelly’s Plains farm kid, who just wants to see the best outcome for the Armidale region.
Since leaving Armidale 10 years ago to move to Germany, I’ve experienced rail trails all over Europe and also some amazing (and some not so amazing) trains. This just means I like both, and both are awesome. But does that mean a rail trail is the right thing for Armidale? Lets see if we can find some answers using some of the basic principles I learned at UNE.
One of the most important lessons I had from the amazing Jack Sinden was that the key to good decision making is twofold. The first is to remain in the realm of objective, and quantifiable fact, not emotion. The second is always frame decisions in the terms of opportunity cost, that is, what is the NEXT best alternative foregone.
It’s easy to get caught up in all the possible alternatives that can be done with respects to funding, usage of land, and the competing interests of the community. But the only thing that really matters when making decisions of this nature is our ability to compare the two choices on the table, the proposed project, and the next best alternative.
This then gets to what was no doubt part of the decision making all those years ago to close the line itself. While rail is cheaper per tonne per kilometre for transportation of goods and services, the next best alternative to keeping the railway line open was to close it, and to rely on trucking and bus services to fill the void. While trucking and busses are typically more expensive compared to rail to operate, they have the advantage of being able to stop at my door, or that of any business requiring transportation services. In 2024, Armidale’s population density was 3.8, Glen Innes Severn just 1.6 and Tenterfield at just 1. (Population estimates and components by LGA, 2023 to 2024, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release#data-downloads).
To this end, Armidale is on par with Iceland, which also has no train system, but rather relies on a well-integrated road network for the distribution of goods and services. So while the closure of the line and it’s rational can be debated by historians and arm-chair academics, the reality is that in this instant, trucking was the next best alternative. It has not only become an important replacement of the rail infrastructure foregone, but also become a vital part of economic employment across the New England region.
I get that this is also an incredibly emotive issue for many in the community. The rail trail poses a threat to the aspirations of others, like Trains North and New England Railway Inc (NERI). It would directly hinder their missions to see the Main Northern Line reopened beyond Armidale to Guyra, Ben Lomond, and even Glen Innes. For those who have been part of NERI since it’s inception in the 1990’s, the rail trail would mean many years of hard work forgone.
Another key economic concept to introduce here then is that of a Pareto improvement. A Pareto improvement is the ability to make at least one person better off, without making anyone worse off. In the context of the rail trail, it’s hard to see that this wouldn’t make it worse off for those who have already invested their time and effort into trying to reopen the line north of Armidale. But this is then where we must introduce the final piece of the puzzle. That is how to value the time and money already sunk into other ventures.
In the case of NERI, it’s been going since the 1990’s. Countless years of work have been spent both campaigning for funds and support, while simultaneously doing excellent work on restoring the three rail car sets. But the reality is that it’s no longer the 1990s… or the 2000s… or the 2010s even. The now sunk costs associated with the venture, while no doubt valuable to the people who paid them through their time and effort, does not factor into a decision that is being made now. The only thing that should be considered is the next best alternative to the rail trail.
To that end, it’s important for those who oppose the rail trail and want to use the rail corridor for something else, to come to the table with a cohesive plan as to what that actually is. For council and those debating the choices, you need to choose the NEXT best alternative, as it’s the only way to make a clear and persuasive argument against the rail trail development.
But for me, any of the alternatives being presented are going to be like de-ja-vu. While councillor Widders claims the rail trail debate is like flogging a dead horse, I see it quite the opposite. I see an Armidale, yet again, mired in debates that will ultimately lead to inaction, missed opportunities, and watching on as other regions go ahead; like Tamworth before us, and now Glen Innes ahead of us with their rail trail developments. If we are to have a reasoned debate on this, it’s important to ensure we frame the decisions in a fact based framework that uses the outlined economic principles for framing any further discussions.
I still see so many opportunities for the Armidale community to come together and support the rail trail venture. There is still a place for NERI, even once the rail trail is installed, which is linking Tamworth and Armidale with more regular tourist options, and even helping those who want to use the rail trail to access it. There is a way to achieve a Pareto improvement here, and it’s simply having a rail trail north, and tourist trains south, and Armidale as the centre of both.
Got something on your mind? Go on then, engage. Submit your opinion piece, letter to the editor, or Quick Word now.
The rail trail idea leads to an opportunity lost, one to be seriously regretted in the future.
I’d be more inclined to support a rail trail proposal that didn’t involve ripping up the existing train tracks. I think it’s incredibly short-sighted to assume that rail travel will never again be important to the region. Trains can carry freight and passengers, and with the right configuration of carriages, not only can they can carry both at the same time, but it’s also get carriages that allow for vehicles to be transported, meaning it’s possible for people to have their car with them when they arrive at their destination. Imagine the marketing/advertising/tourism potential for an area if people could catch a train to a tourist area, walk to the end of the train, and their car is there waiting for them. No having to leave the car at home, no potentially paying thousands in car rental fees. Just drive to the train station, load the car onto the train, and when they get to their destination, they can get in their car and enjoy their vacation.
Leitha Hyde no offence, but when has that been used in this region, ever?
None taken. To the best of my knowledge my idea hasn’t ever been done in this area, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. Armidale has a lot of nation parks all within a three hour drive (and depending on which route you take, Coffs Harbour and its beach is only a 2.5 – 3 hour drive away) so a train that allows passengers to take their car with them and not have the hassle of renting a car, or dealing with the 6-8 hour drive from Sydney (again depending on the route taken and how many stops are made on the way) would make it easier for for visitors to explore them.
Leitha Hyde not sure if it even happens in Australia. Cost of freight travel for a car would be more than that of the fuel to drive to the location, or rent a vehicle for that period.
Shane McGee – it does not happen at all anymore. All of the car loading facilities were removed in the 90’s and early 2000’s.
Leitha Hyde – why would you not catch the existing train to Armidale and then rent a car or fly to Armidale and then rent a car? If you want beaches fly to Coffs, Ballina or the Gold or Sunshine Coast.
Steve Hodges That’s entirely possible and probably what most people do, but renting a car is another expense and hassle for people to deal with when they are on holiday, and that’s IF the car rental service has cars available.
Leitha Hyde – carrying cars on trains were largely abandoned in the 90’s. It is an expensive exercise and inefficient when considering the loading of cars on and off at either end. It is also only available for locomotive hauled trains and more modern trains like the XPT etc are not like that. There are also no car loading facilities available anywhere as they were removed.
Leitha Hyde have you considered the cost of transporting a car on a train ?
Leitha Hyde sydney and brisbaneAT. IMMENSE cost are slowly replacing the tracks ripped out ( under US transport interest pressure ) in the 1960 ‘s.
I think my favoured proposal at this time is to not spend half a million dollars of ratepayers’ money on looking at the rail trail proposal again, and to spend that money maintaining and improving our existing cycleways and to leave the Main North Line as it is, to allow for future rail projects.
End use. A handful of people would likely use/benefit from the rail trail. Not everyone likes to/is able to, ride, walk or the run long distances it will cover. Meanwhile the whole region would benefit from regular passenger and freight services, running everyday, transporting people and goods into and out of the region, to and from all over, and, regardless of weather conditions. How many people would use the rail trail in hot, rainy, windy or cold/snowy weather? If you’re going to spend that money, you might as well invest it in something that benefits the most people.
Brad Hayne Ability to access something is not the same as actually accessing something.
The current rail services and cycle trails are good indicators of actual use.
Bruce Myers the current rail service is woefully inadequate/non-existent. How many people would drive on a pothole-riddled goat track of a road? Similarly, how many people would be out on existing trails in today’s heat? 🤔
Brad Hayne Cyclists ride early or late in the day to avoid the heat. The current trails are okay. They get used a lot.
Heaps of people drive their cars on the pothole-riddled goat track we call the New England highway.
As humans, we’re too selfish to give up our cars. I predict that the new (long promised) rolling stock will not increase passenger numbers to Armidale.
In the end, it seems to be just about the steel tracks. The corridor will always belong to the State government. I would like to see the land used rather than lay idle. A cycleway is the cheapest way to do this.
Bruce Myers exactly: cyclists “avoid the heat”. Trains run all day including during hot weather. Passengers can travel on trains all day, not just in the morning and evening. Not everyone can or wants to drive. If there are convenient and practical trains, they provide an attractive and more appropriate alternative, otherwise no-one would use passenger trains anywhere in the world. In addition to all of this, freight could also be potentially transported on these railway lines. How much freight can a cyclist carry?
Brad Hayne I lived in Tenterfield when the railway closed and no one used the line for freight other than the short term transport of wooden sleepers for a short time
Brad Hayne The trains don’t go very well in the heat. The warping of the steel rails slows them, sometimes even stopping them. Having done the Armidale – Sydney shuffle in January on multiple occasions, it’s a thing.
Bruce Myers yes, trains are affected by extreme heat. So are cars, roads and cyclists.
Alan Russell that’s a shame it wasn’t better utilised, perhaps re-opening it would connect it up to QLD, inland rail and Newcastle Port (now it’s becoming a container terminal too), might be make it more appealing than in the past?
Brad Hayne Yes, but you’re contradicting yourself now. Before you mentioned that rail would function “regardless of weather conditions”. You’ll have to concede here that all transport modes are affected by weather.
Bruce Myers ok Bruce, I’ll update my statement to be crystal clear, “regardless of weather conditions”, (except obviously in extreme weather which impacts optimum operating conditions for most, if not all, machinery and infrastructure).
Brad Hayne Yes, but it’s not extreme weather. It’s routine Australian summer weather. I’m tired of lazy arguments like this.
Bruce Myers you replied to my comment, not me.
Brad Hayne – running with your usual rail trail hate campaign. Suprised I have not seen your good mate Phil Buckley also here with his ill informed cyclist hating comments. You and the other haters would not know a rail trail if you fell over one, much less what they achieve for communities where they are present. There is a bucket load of information online about the Northern Rivers, Brisbane Valley, Tumbarumba, Murray Mountains rail trails setting out the good numbers of users, the money and jobs generated etc. Haters standing in a rail trail carpark for an hour every year or so is not the determinate factor as to whether they are a success. The reality is that about 20-30 people once a day travel north from Armidale or south from Tenterfield on the coach. Once a day! Do you think magically hundreds of people are going to then appear when a train also runs once a day? Fantasy. There is also no freight of significance coming out of that part of the New England that justifies more than a truck. If there was, there is ample space and opportunity for a freight hub at Armidale – but there is not. The trucks on the New England highway are carrying freight through the area to and from Qld. Lets assume that freight was a on a train north to Wallangarra. What happens then? Put it back on a truck when it gets to the border? What about inland rail when it comes on stream? That going to drive more freight through the New England on a train. Certainly not. As for Tenterfield they have already seen the benefits of cycling tourism and are building the Angry Bull Trails mountain bike facility. Join that with a rail trail for the less adventurous and family cyclist and the area becomes a hub. Bright is a perfect example of that and Tumbarumba as well now that they have opened their mountain bike park to compliment the rail trail. You think cyclists are snowflakes and only come out 2-3 months a year on a perfect day? Once again you show your ignorance, Have a look at how many cycle around Canberra in winter if you are sceptical. As for heritage trains, why dont we throw some money NERI’s way to get their rail motors going for passenger trips south of Armidale. They can concentrate on running trains and for a modest access fee as a heritage operator they can let UGL maintain the already active line south.
Steve Hodges nah Steve, I don’t hate rail trails and cyclists. Please don’t say that I do. I just think operating railway lines offer much greater benefit, as per the reasons I list above. Thanks for your input.
Ok Brad. I will accept what you say here but that is not what I have seen in your prior comments. We will continue to disagree on the better option for the New England. To be brutally honest if the trail does not happen, nothing will. This is really not a trains v trails debate. It is a trail or rotting corridor debate. cheers
Brad Hayne then why do you think trains were stopped on the GNR ?
I’m all for cycle trails. Either in urban environment green space where we all can enjoy the space, or in National Parks. I do not support the tearing up of disused publicly funded transport infrastructure. What may not be needed today may be needed in the future. Rail based technology is evolving, there may come a time when the existing corridor will have a more valuable purpose than catering for a few, very few, bike riders.
While I’m strongly in support of the rail trail as I’ve done some in the past and seen the difference they make, I think the real way forward is to have a proper vote where every rate payer gets to have their say in some official way. Otherwise we will never know the true level of support.
I think there’s more support than against based on the people I speak with, but I could be wrong. Social media loves to amplify conflict and is vulnerable to brigading. (people outside of the area bringing in their mates on either side etc) If the majority don’t want it then so be it.
Michael Kean We have done polling on it – it’s pretty evenly split between people who really want trains, people who really want the trail, people who don’t care either way, and people who just don’t ever want to hear about it again.
The majority do not want it – as polled in 2021 and 2023.
New England Times Im not convinced that your polling was accurate, how did you gather the numbers, by random sampling, asking people to respond or just looking at the people who volunteered information ?
Jenny Wild New England Times is owned by a research company that does political polling. The 21 poll was published here: https://korecsr.com/2021/11/29/special-armidale-kore-poll/ scroll down, it’s the second last issue.
Media: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=822168403903831&set=p.822168403903831&type=3
New England Times ok, but it wasn’t restricted to rate payers so it’s very open to interest groups on both sides or people voting multiple times via different devices and networks. It needs to be done properly by the government or some similar body.
New England Times thanks I’ll take a look
Michael Kean Interesting take – the Government doesn’t do polling, they commission pollsters like KORE CSR, or they ask the ABS or similar independent research entity to do a study, because otherwise it wouldn’t be done properly (transparency/independence kinda matters). That one was restricted to residents of Armidale, and we do actually control for things like repeat entries – but as it was not advertised as a poll about the rail trail, it wasn’t subject to flooding from activists. The 23 polling (which is not public) was commissioned by another organisation, conducted with verified registered voters only in ARC and GISC, but the numbers were similar – slightly less support if anything.
New England Times ok I’ve taken a look and a few things hit me
The political poll carried out at the same time has no correlation to what actually transpired in the local government elections, in fact they were so far from the realised outcome it puts in doubt the base you used for the research.
So back I go to establish the sampling numbers, and let’s face it a number of 649 is laughably inadequate for any serious analysis.
And here’s the kicker I read what was written about the question of the rail trail. To make it easier for anyone reading this I’ll copy it here
There are few issues as intensely debated in Armidale right now as a proposal to replace 103 kms of railway line between Armidale and Glen Innes with a bike riding track. Research on this issue previously has been very poor, with no explanation of what was being proposed, push-poll style questions, and the use of the term ‘Rail Trail’ as some kind of fancy tourist attraction rather than easy to understand language essential in any reliable research. We copped a fair bit of abuse and were accused of bias by asking more bluntly if people approved of ripping up the train line to put in a bike track, because apparently proposers of the Rail Trail expected us to also engage in the deception. Sorry, that’s not what we do
These comments paint the New England Times in a very poor light, firstly your research should have included ( at the very least ) a read of the business plan. Or some conversation with agencies like Regional Development, or the Council. It is obvious that you have some personal connection with the train lobby, or you are just too lazy to bother. Your comments that you don’t entertain deception is questionable, how many times have you commented lately on the return of trains?
I guess we will see the outcome of the TfNSW strategic plan but I hope you will make a full apology about your one sided almost arrogant comment on the subject once it’s released
Jenny Wild the New England Times have all of a sudden gone very quiet Jenny!
New England Times I mean a vote, not poll. Something official. Something incorruptible. If it’s as close in reality as your poll states, all the more important.
New England Times the majority of a self selected poll. This is not great statistics. A random phone poll across the region may give a very different view
Mark Smith surprised are we 😂😂
Michael Kean let’s also not forget that the railway corridor/land/infrastructure are state assets, not local. Considering it has the potential to complete an interstate connection linking two capital cities and all the communities inbetween, a local poll is not comprehensive enough.
Brad Hayne a rail trail doesn’t prevent a rail service coming back if it ever becomes viable, so i don’t think that’s necessary.
Rate payers in the other affected councils should of course have a vote.
Sydney and Brisbane are already linked by rail.
Michael Kean it’s still a state asset, not a local asset. So I guess we could also rip up the New England HWY and tell everyone to use the Pacific instead. 🤔
This article makes too much sense for it to be accepted
Based on the Hunter Valley where is Armidale to Tenterfield going to get an 80 wagon freight every 8 minutes to make a viable freight corridor?
Alan Russell it should be Armidale all the way to Jennings although Tenterfield would be a good start.
Jim Larsen answer the question to make your case
Alan Russell where do you get the 80 wagon every 8 minutes from? There is no comparison! Why not try Qld Rail and 15 carriages/day Brisbane to Rockhampton? Perhaps you think someone is about to open a coal mine near Guyra to justify reopening the line? Why was it built originally? And of course there’s virtually no money in a bicycle trails so let’s just dig up any remaining line and sell it for scrap?
Where is the financial report showing the value for a cycleway? Don’t worry looking as there is not one with verifiable figures! It is all rubbish about the value when Tenterfield has already shown what works and it is not a pathetic cycleway that rips up infrastructure!
David Renn – incapable of a google search as you know it all
already? It might show you for a start that this is a “rail trail” not a cycleway. Google would also show you that 30% of users are using their feet and not on a bike. Just as well no decision maker will be consulting you for information….
Steve Hodges so where is the financial report with actual figures. As per usual you have nothing, zilch, Nada! Not one thing!
What trail do you want Mr Incapable of using google?
Media: https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia3.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fv1.Y2lkPTEyMGMwMTQ3dDc0azJ1cXpwMGp2aTd2cXprYWd4Y3NrMTJsM3MwZTk0bzJienFqNiZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n%2Fs4FDIU5rGfOpy%2Fgiphy.gif&h=AT36TtYRJeZx1_2qNlIAd60SI4FYxJwzLVOj8iLYQrX6OqE7SGc05Pn9IVtX4ufWkwhKw-0MQfIcvhJq4uh23eJSqV4LkQutsfxRHayk9vNjcXI1_nHrO1qVYXgD7cbb&s=1
Steve Hodges The only thing in Google is the supposed attendance figures. Nothing about MONEY! So Mr genius, let’s see a real financial report.
David Renn ditto
David Renn Just as sandcastles come and go as the tide changes so too would be a bike track built on a main rail corridor such as the Great Northern Line for as the tide is rapidly changing within the transport sector due to net zero calling for a lowering of its carbon impact would disappear resulting in tears for the simple fact that time and tide waits for no man.
Taking on board what this proposal faces if there was the slightest hope it would be a winner would be the same as flogging a dead horse in tomorrow’s Cup.
Just as seasoned race goers and those in the game of backing winners are pointing out it would be a huge gamble that even it made it to the finish line the poor thing would end up in the knackery, so let’s just except the inevitable what the future of technology has in store for us.
All hail the wisdom
of Brian Flint. What a distinguished luminary on rail, honed by years of driving trucks. His financial and environmental insight into the viability of trains is without parallel. More recently however he has become an expert on rail trails and cycling. The NSW and Federal governments will be consulting with him on any future rail trail grants…
Steve Hodges Your welcome.
Happy to give credit where credit is due 😉
Northern Rivers perhaps? https://www.tweed.nsw.gov.au/council/news-updates/latest-news/media-releases/1502462-northern-rivers-rail-trail-delivering-economic-benefits-for-the-tweed
Uhm ….. Why did the ARC General Manager resign from ARC and move away from Armidale? 🙂
Why did ARC Mayor Sham re-instate the former General Manager into the position he resigned from?? 😔
Was there a deal done to promote the bike path to nowhere to see nothing over the stated needs of the too long suffering ratepayers to ignore that community demand for a PASSENGER TRAIN PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE THAT WAS REGULAR, RELIABLE & AFFORDABLE?? 😩
Jack Arnold it’s OK Jack no one from this area expects you to fathom realistic practical solutions. Why don’t you have a crack at the NOtionals, or are you saving that for a further whinge on this post.
You are correct about some things, the train is regular ( regularly late) and affordable ( especially when you use your pension card )
It is reliable ( because for the most part any hiccups are covered by a bus, which people readily accept as a reasonable alternative)
We all understand that any sensible comments made on this subject are just too far outside what your over inflated sense of entitlement allowsMedia: https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia4.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fv1.Y2lkPTEyMGMwMTQ3a2FjNXExeDByeHRnd3F4eGlqaGowMXE4N2R5MzEwcWRpbWlwMG5nbSZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n%2F9u1J84ZtCSl9K%2Fgiphy.gif&h=AT2QgXkSiw99V47uLKEKkmxkVNhqhQ9mAQ-_YBG6yOu_NsUBVA75Jmz2_-SFuGrjjwMr0hhYTm8NXX7fINQu6xGdK5X9iG0mnJqHBywP9GbEMPG05vztaLzjsx0Gt9-Y&s=1
Jack will be travelling with his car and caravan and the train is just a nice to have for a boomer trainiac. Trains are his second love after political commentary which he is hoping will win him a literary award for wit…
1. Is the rail trail project affordable and achievable – most likely no. It’s a heavy burden, grant dependant, high maintenance.
If you can get past that hurdle then worry if it’s the best idea for the region.
The region. The new England region Is a geographical area from the border at Wallangarra/Jennings all the way to Tamworth. So it is bigger then Glen Innes and Armidale. When processing regional benefits and what’s best, all towns must be considered in a regional sense of direction.
3. 30 years will be the lease, it will take any chance of rail returning for at least 30 years. That’s a long time.
4. There’s plenty of cycling events and places to ride now. Do you need a rail trail? It’s not like we lack green spaces to enjoy, nor places to cycle.
The argument isn’t can we have trains or trails. It’s can we afford a rail trail. Because no ifs or buts the ratepayers will end up with the bills and other sporting and recreation and community groups and everything else will suffer because grant sourcing will be focused upon a rail trail and keeping it pristine to attract cycle tourists.
Something I left out of the peice, but an important addition. I would say IMO that it is highly unlikely that there is any economic merit to reopening the line to freight services, especially now that the NSW state government has contributed funds in the order of *Billions* of dollars to establish the Inland Rail project. While this project has its own issues, it also means that there is little scope to support an additional/reopened line north to QLD. Bulk transport services can be accessed through Werris Creek, Narrabri and Moree, and can linked to the New England region through trucking services.
The proposed regular passenger services will also not return when more economical viable options such as bus transport, still require government subsidy to function. The reality is that the NE region doesn’t have the population density to support this mode of transport.