Gen Z and other relatively young Australians who feel they owe little to major parties are an unpredictable voting force heading into the 2025 federal election.
There’s a whole generation of new kids on the block — almost all under 30, relatively left-leaning and with little allegiance to major parties — who throw a huge dose of uncertainty and challenges into the 2025 election mix.
Gen Z — that group born between 1995 and 2010 — is now a significant part of the voting population and many of them will lodge their ballots in a federal election for the first time in May.
Australia is at a demographic tipping point as it prepares to vote. For the first time in decades the Baby Boomers who grew up in the decades just after World War II are no longer the dominant voting bloc.
Gen Z and the Millennials, that group born between 1980-1994 who came of age early in the 21st century, now combine to represent a greater part of the electorate.
The 2022 federal election showed that Gen Z comprises the most ideologically left-leaning, least major party-oriented and most issue-based voters.
They are also the most likely to be swing voters and change voting decisions during the election campaign.
Yet, there remain uncertainties around how the youngest voting cohort will vote this time around, especially with gender fault lines appearing in political ideology in comparable democracies around the world.
Gen Z traits
Gen Z, much like their older Millennial cousins, have faced a longer transition to adulthood, with traditional milestones such as stable employment, home ownership and parenthood delayed compared with previous generations.
They are coming of age in a precarious and casualised labour market where they need a higher level of education for even low-paid jobs, saddling them with larger student debts for longer.
They were disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with high rates of psychological distress, educational disruption and unemployment impacting their formative years.
They are entering an insecure job market and a housing system largely suited to generating income for investors rather than providing affordable accommodation.
Young Australians are delaying their entry into the property market and also increasingly unable to afford rent. Gen Z are set to be lifetime renters, with even medium-sized home ownership out of reach with a modest income.
It’s also a generation that worries about climate change and how action — or inaction — on dealing with it directly impacts their future.
The disenchanted
Gen Z has obviously encountered significant obstacles to stability so it should be no surprise they have grown disillusioned with the two major parties.
This is demonstrated in a significant decline in identification with major parties.
The Australian Election Study showed about 53 percent of 18 to 30-year-olds considered themselves on the left of the liberal-conservative ideological scale in 2022 compared with just a quarter in 1998. The proportion who saw themselves in the centre and to the right had also dropped dramatically.
The number of young Australians interested in politics remained relatively steady at 63 percent, but just 28 percent said that they had stuck to the same party when they voted in a previous election and more considered changing their vote during a campaign, up from 30 percent in 1998 to more than 42 percent in 2022.
About 64 percent of Gen Z say they prioritise policy issues over party leaders or candidates when deciding their vote.
The top concerns for young voters at the past three elections have been health and Medicare (2016), global warming (2019) and cost of living (2022) — all areas of perceived electoral weakness for the Coalition.
In 2022, only 10.5 percent of voters saw the Coalition as best to manage health and Medicare, compared with 55.8 percent who preferred Labor.
This shift has enabled the Greens capitalise on generational replacement, as younger voters, socialised in a climate of activism gradually displace older generations at the polls.
So as about 80 percent of Greens preferences flowing to Labor, the movement of the young away from the major parties represents a critical disadvantage to a Coalition opposition on the centre-right which might face further erosion of support among younger voters.
The gender divide
All that said, with a substantial chunk of Gen Z vote for the first time, Labor is no certainty to retain the youth vote and there is a significant gender gap opening within young voters.
Although Gen Z makes up the most progressive cohort, young women are moving to the left much faster than young men.
The trend is not as aggravated in Australia as in other democracies like the US, Germany or South Korea, where young men are becoming more conservative.
A recent poll revealed that 37 percent of male voters aged 18-34 preferred Peter Dutton as prime minister, compared with 27 per cent of women in the same age group.
Australia’s compulsory voting system obscures signs of gendered polarisation but there is evidence that young men — influenced by Australia’s booming podcast scene — frequent social media platforms that help turn quiet discontent into reactionary politics.
Younger Australians’ diverse digital habits, which include relying on short-form videos, podcasts and platforms like TikTok and Instagram for their news, means they are increasingly exposed to fragmented, algorithm-driven content.
Amid rising concerns about misinformation, this adds to their volatility as voters.
Reshaping democracy
A much younger, more diverse electorate will influence political priorities. The major parties risk further political disengagement or voter backlash if they fail to respond to their concerns — on climate action, housing affordability, or economic insecurity.
Minor parties and independents, which gained ground in 2022, are again the likely beneficiaries.
To stay in the game, major parties need major resets.
Younger generations have significantly different economic and social experiences and prospects and much different priorities to a generation like the Baby Boomers.
The influence of younger voters means Australia could see more minority governments and further fragmentation of the two-party system.
A major challenge for the major parties is to learn to take the pulse of the nation — which now comprises a more volatile voter base — and build coalitions of electoral support at each contest.
Dr Intifar Chowdhury is a lecturer in government at Flinders University. She is a youth researcher passionate about improving the political representation of all young Australians.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.
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